October 3, 2006 2:49 PM
Stocks For The Long Run: Applied Materials (AMAT)
Tech Dominators: Technology may change, and tech shares may be very unpredictable, but one type of stock in particular benefits from a very long holding period. A company that dominates an important business can maintain its position for years and turn in above-average growth.
If the business is highly cyclical, however, even the No. 1 player's stock will bounce up and down, and investors can get burned if they mis-time a trade. But hold for 30 years, and you won't care about volatility. In the end, you'll reap the rewards of decades of earnings growth.
Applied Materials is the leading producer of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment. Even in good times this is a cyclical business. Because chipmaking equipment is so expensive (from $1 million to $3 million apiece for one of the latest systems), producers put off buying new machines as long as they can. But then, when overall demand picks up enough or a new kind of chip becomes popular, makers have to upgrade.
Recently, Applied Materials has warned that orders could be flat in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, the company's earnings have grown at an 18% compound annual rate over the past five years. That's impressive for a stock trading at less than 15 times estimated earnings. Just be sure you balance a stock like Applied Materials with more conservative choices so you'll be comfortable hanging on through the ups and downs.
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