Stock & Options Trading

What Does A Democrats' Win Mean To Your Financial Life?

Great post Jeffrey! Concise and up to the point, and giving us a prediction of the ramifications of a Democrats' win in personal finance. In a nutshell:

The Winners:
1. Those who have student loans (Dem will reduce student loan rates)
2. Fannie Mae and Freddia Mac

The Losers:
1. Defense companies (Dem = less military spending)
2. Drug companies (Dem = more Medicare hard bargaining)

The Shakers:
1. Those who barely makes the national minimal wage (Dem will increase the minimal wage, but they can lose job too.)

And Wall Street believes, with good reason, that the Democrats want to rewrite the Medicare law so that the government could bargain for (presumably) lower drug prices with pharmaceutical manufacturers. In 2003, the drug makers persuaded the Republican-led Congress to block such a provision. Even if Congress doesn't approve such legislation soon or ever, investors in big pharma may be facing a headwind -- unless, of course, the drug makers can push fresh winners out of their labs.

Democrats are reputed to be friendly with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage repackagers, both of which have been closely scrutinized by Congressional Republicans in recent years. Shares of both government-sponsored enterprises have climbed about 20% in the past three months. It's hard to make a fundamental case for the stocks, given that Fannie and Freddie make their profits from the spread between long and short interest rates and by reselling mortgages to investors in its securities. But the interest-rate spread is almost flat and mortgage volume has slowed with the weakness in housing sales. So perhaps it is politics that is driving the stocks higher.

Outside of these examples, it's hard to see where a leadership switch in Congress presents you with a do-it-now action list. Keep in mind that a Republican, George W. Bush, will remain in the White House no matter what happens on Election Day. He'll be able to wield his veto against truly obnoxious anti-business legislation, and it's hard to imagine a Democratic landslide so great as to make Congress veto-proof.