Stock & Options Trading

Is Anheuser-Busch (BUD) A Buy?

Bob Frick at Kiplinger's Personal Finance argues Anheuser-Busch is a great value now. Although I drink Bud a lot, the current P/E ratio is too rich for my taste.

The truth is, investing in what you like isn't always the best strategy. Sometimes what makes the most sense is to invest in what's cheap. And I'm not talking about $5.24 for a six-pack of Bud versus $7.99 for one of Sam Adams at my local supermarket. At its November 15 close of $46.92, Anheuser-Busch (symbol BUD) trades at 17 times estimated 2007 earnings of $2.80 a share, according to Thomson First Call. By contrast, Boston Beer (SAM), at $35.72, sells for 26 times estimated '07 profits of $1.40 a share.

True, Anheuser-Busch's sales have been torpid the past few years while Boston Beer has been growing quickly. Also, Anheuser-Busch's stock has done little, basically waffling between $40 and $50 a share the past two years -- and there's nothing worse than flat Bud. But a research report from Zach's Equity Research issued recently makes a compelling case that the stock is poised to break out, much like the scene in Animal House in which the keg flew out of a Delta House window.

I use the words "much like," because a key driver of beer consumption is the "first-time drinker demographic," as Zack's analyst Steven Ralston puts it. That swath of males 21 to 28 years old makes up 13% of the population, but drinks 27% of the beer. And it's a growing group. Expect four million new legal beer guzzlers between 2003 and 2010, which translates to 1% to 1.5% more beer drunk per year. That might not seem like much, but considering that Anheuser-Busch has 49% of the domestically brewed beer market, even small increases in overall consumption can have a big impact on the bottom line.